“Keep in your wallet high-quality securities that have proven themselves in the past,” Chat

“Hold in your pockets high-quality securities which have confirmed themselves up to now,” Chat

Remy Lou Bailey: Good morning all. Thanks on your loyalty and your many questions. I am going to begin by answering a query that hasn’t been requested of me, however because the matter has generated many feedback from you in current weeks, I am going to begin with it.

That is the tumor. The result of the takeover bid after the reopening was identified final week. KKR has, this time, exceeded 90% of the share capital and voting rights. It’s going to subsequently be capable of perform the compression process, at a worth of fifty euros per share. This time the shareholder won’t have the selection of whether or not or to not supply his shares within the supply, he shall be pressured to take action. It was confiscated.

Keep in mind that we felt the worth was not excessive sufficient and we have been suggested to maintain the addresses. Only a few traders have been of our opinion. For individuals who have stored titles, the method is impartial. This quantities to the identical factor as if they’d submitted their securities for a suggestion. After that first “fallacious” query, let’s now transfer on to the actual questions…

Theo: Whats up, Mr. Lou Bailey. After following your recommendation to promote when Cac was in its heyday, I stayed 30% invested. Additionally my query: Ought to it’s bought or when ought to it’s changed (inflation, crash threat, and so on)? warmly.

Remy Lou Bailey: Thanks twice Theo. Initially, since you congratulate me, which at all times pleases me, after which as a result of your query corresponds completely to the questions of the second.

In truth, the atmosphere just isn’t good. Clouds are gathering and the market has fallen sharply over the previous week. Nonetheless, since you have got undoubtedly learn the funding indicators revealed on this week’s Weekly, the market on the whole falls extra sharply when the financial system falls into recession, which is the state of affairs of many monetary establishments and the low level is reached after the onset of a recession .

Which means if this state of affairs happens, we must wait a number of quarters earlier than reaching the low level. However these are solely averages noticed up to now (because the early Nineteen Seventies). Every case is exclusive. For one motive or one other (extra environment friendly central banks, finish of conflict in Ukraine…), the financial system can flip round, which might keep away from this black state of affairs.

Which means being 100% liquid is a doubtlessly dangerous guess. If the market turns round, you’ll miss the start of the rally…You’re invested 30%, which appears to me to be a great compromise. Hold top quality shares which have confirmed their price up to now.

As on your query “when to reinvest”, i.e. when to reinvest, you’ll perceive that it’s higher to attend till the financial system enters a recession (if the probably state of affairs materializes), or that it resumes enterprise after avoiding a recession.

Didier: In your opinion, given the present state of affairs (the conflict in Ukraine), what threshold will the Cac 40 attain on December 31, 2022? Thanks upfront for the reply.

Remy Lou Bailey: I feel it could be lower than 6000 factors and even 5500 if the potential for a recession was not doubtful.

Victor 70: Hello Mr. Le Bailly. I adopted the advice to purchase Chargeurs inventory, particularly because the reported return was excessive. Ought to we hold these headlines ready to rise? Furthermore, Investir doesn’t include a dividend error: you declare a dividend of 1.24 euros … however elsewhere you doc 0.76 euros. Thanks on your accuracy.

Remy Lou Bailey: We have devoted an article to Chargeurs within the Weekly this week. We’ve moved from “buying” to “speculative shopping for” as a result of there may be clearly a certain quantity of distrust within the firm, the outcomes of which stay usually passable.

As well as, by way of dividends, the corporate paid its dividend of 1.24 euros for the 2021 fiscal yr in two installments. A deposit of 0.48 euros on the finish of final yr and an appendix referred to as the steadiness in April. Most firms distribute dividends in a single go, whereas others accomplish that in two and even 4 batches, corresponding to TotalEnergies.

For the 2022 fiscal yr, the Chargeurs have determined to pay a deposit of €0.22 which shall be paid on October 6. We anticipate a complete dividend of €0.50 for the total yr.

Minuchat: Whats up, Mr. Lou Bailey. I made a bearish common in Orpea at €25, do you assume we must always do the identical at €14/15? Dwelling worth alone is, I feel, increased than the present inventory market worth, however by how a lot? Given the carnage of worth however nonetheless nonetheless a whole profit, might a takeover try come up? warmly.

Remy Lou Bailey: A lot of you ask me about Orpea. At first, I remind you that I’m very skeptical about decrease averages. It’s typically a means for an investor to not notice that they have been fallacious.

The title will in all probability be extra precious than it’s right this moment in 5 years. At 2, I am undecided. We suggest conserving it as a result of it’s too late to promote.

MXX: Whats up, Was there a typo within the “Managers are brief” part of your newest version, the place the paragraph for Alstom and Vinci refers to a railroad specialist and a bunch of pc sciences? Thanks for chatting and upfront on your clarifications.

Remy Lou Bailey: effectively seen. You need to learn Atos, not Vinci. Sorry for this error.

Variable: What’s your new tackle the M6 ​​stake after abandoning the merger undertaking with TF1?

Remy Lou Bailey: For those who take part on this chat, you additionally learn our recommendation on the location. At the start of the afternoon, we revealed an article recommending to go on sale the M6, which the corporate was, beforehand, probably the most favored by the TF1-M6 marriage. We stay to purchase TF1 which advantages (like M6 furthermore) from beneficiant dividend and which has better potential to enhance its profitability.

Gim: Hello Mr. Le Bailly, what number of shares of GTT are nonetheless owned by Engie? Thanks on your reply.

Remy Lou Bailey: Inge simply eased its place once more final weekend, by promoting 6% of the capital. This affected the headline on Friday. Engy nonetheless owns about 5% of the capital and has pledged to carry it for at the very least one yr. As well as, ENGIE, in Might 2021, issued a zero-coupon bond with a maturity of three years, redeemable in GTT shares. This represents about 10% of the capital.

Your implied query in regards to the risks of “returning paper”. So it appears unlikely for one yr. Then there’s a 5% likelihood of hitting the market in a single yr, then 10% in two years. However within the latter case, bond bookmakers can resolve to carry all or a part of their securities.

I remind you that we’re shopping for GTT, an organization that’s benefiting from the LNG “growth”, a approach to scale back Europe’s dependence on Russian fuel.

Massetti: Hey, I am attempting to get a clearer image of actual property firms. After studying La Cote on Saturday, I do not know which one to decide on between Icade, Argan, Gecina, and Nexity (relying on their debt, bounce capability, yield, and so on.). Thanks for enlightening me. warmly.

Remy Lou Bailey: We purchase these 4 actual property firms, however they’ve very completely different profiles. Jessina, positioned in residential properties, is the most secure. Argan is probably the most dynamic worth because it develops within the booming logistics market, however its yield is much less enticing. Nexity and Icade have a extra dangerous profile, particularly Nexity which is a promoter, however these final two securities are very discounted…

Pierre: Whats up, Mr. Le Bailey. What do you consider ABC Arbitrage? In truth, given the present excessive volatility of the markets, I believed this worth may very well be fascinating, particularly because the payout is sweet and it was, a number of months in the past, within the high 10. Nonetheless, I discover it very disappointing for a number of months, at a worth that’s solely taking place… Thanks on your opinion.

Remy Lou Bailey: Very disappointing a bit harsh. The measure is down about 5% YTD and over 1 yr in the past, when Cac 40 yields, 15% YTD and over 1 yr previous. The corporate paid a dividend of 40 cents (in 4 installments) for the 2021 fiscal yr, which suggests reinvested dividend efficiency is pretty steady all year long.

We’ll know extra tomorrow in regards to the influence of volatility on the accounts, as the corporate will publish its outcomes for the primary half.

Nicolas: Hello Remy, I personal 130 shares of UMG for a mean of €22. The title has completed nothing for therefore lengthy, ought to we promote and strengthen Vivendi? Or ought to we simply keep it up and do you assume the music will rise once more? Thanks for all these conversations and responses.

Remy Lou Bailey: I tended to maintain the UMG titles. The motion was rendered costly however the music sector is kind of defensive. Which is superb within the present atmosphere.

Ron: Hey, with rates of interest going up, is there nonetheless time to speculate with credit score in SCPI?

Remy Lou Bailey: After all, that is much less thrilling than a while in the past, however the charge of credit remains to be far under the efficiency of SCPIs. This additionally makes it attainable to facilitate funding efforts over time. You simply have to barter your credit score charge effectively in an atmosphere that isn’t the best…

Thanks all on your questions. I could not course of all of them, there have been simply too many.

Be at liberty to strive your luck once more subsequent week. On this event you can find your buddy Denis. Have a great week everybody and see you quickly.


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